Will Vietnam lose 5 million jobs soon?
10-07-2018
Technology is growing, especially in the context of explosion of artificial intelligence, so machinery can replace people in many jobs, making the risk of unemployment more visible.
The investment in machinery, modern technology makes VitaJean future reduced more than thousand workers
PHOTOS: T. DUC
Tran Anh Tuan, deputy director of Ho Chi Minh City's Center for Labor Force Forecasting and Information, said a new study by the International Labor Organization (ILO) showed that the technology era Boom increases the risk of losing jobs. There have been warnings that Vietnam will lose 5 million jobs by 2020 because the quality of human resources is only 3.79 (score 10). ranked 11th in Asia in ranking and 4.3 out of 10 competing.
In addition, other indicators are also very low as 4.3 / 10 competitiveness, ranking 56/133 countries; The percentage of trained workers with diplomas / certificates in 2015 is only 20.3%. Vietnam's human resources lack soft skills such as foreign languages, information technology, teamwork, communication, industrial behavior, and professional ethics.
Over the next two decades, about 56 percent of the workforce in five Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, is expected to lose jobs due to robots, especially the apparel industry.
ILO research indicates that textile and footwear are currently the most labor-intensive sectors in countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Cambodia, with 86% of garment workers in Vietnam, 64% in Indonesia. and 88% of the Cambodian workers will face the risk of losing the job of automation.
Other sectors such as driving, construction workers, processing workers, mechanical engineering ... can see the future of robotics will gradually replace most of the work of simple workers, Intermediate in line in industrial plants.
86% of unskilled workers will be replaced
In fact, the situation is not in the country, many enterprises (VN) have invested heavily in modern technology and machinery, so also significantly reduced labor force than before.
For example, Viet Thang Jean Company (VitaJean) has started to speed up the modern equipment in the textile industry such as the control of raw materials; Automatic brush and cut technology to replace 80% of labor compared to before; sewing machines, each machine for 3-5 employees; sewing equipment, laser fabric cutting helps to replace 36 people / machine; Dry cleaners use oxygen to create ozone. Pham Van Viet, General Director of VitaJean, said: "It is expected that the technology will help the company to replace 60-80% of labor compared to before. This will help the company reduce the number of workers from 1,800 to 1,250, then reduce it to 800, and in the future when the installation is complete, the company will have 450 skilled workers. " Mr. Viet said it would complete the assembly line by 2019. This investment will help VitaJean reduce the price to 20% compared to before and estimated within 5 years, the company will recover the investment.
Mr Do Quynh Chi, director of the Center for Labor Relations Studies, quoted the ILO as saying: "By 2050, 86% of Vietnam's unskilled labor in sectors such as apparel, footwear and assembly electronics will be replaced by machines. However, according to Ms. Chi, the replacement is different for each enterprise by depending on the level of capital investment, the application of technology and machinery.
Assoc. Prof. Vu Quang Tho, Director of the Institute of Workers, Trade Union (General Confederation of Labor), said the nature of the business is looking for profit, so when the machinery has advantages to bring more profits will DN. apply. In fact, enterprises increasingly use more modern machines to gradually replace workers, labor and Vietnam can not resist this trend.
On the solution to support workers, Mr. Tho said that it is necessary to quickly improve the skills of workers so that when they switch to modern machines and equipment they can still access and operate. The state should have good welfare policies and policies for employees, which should be demonstrated through action, not just words. The union system at the enterprise is the best place to protect the rights of workers.
Dr. Nguyen Dinh Hoa, Head of Labor - Trade Union (Ton Duc Thang University), said that according to enterprises, especially garment enterprises, the conversion of machinery is not much. However, the trend of using machines, technology to replace people not only in garment is the ongoing and irresistible. Therefore, at the present time, it is necessary to have solutions to train workers to take higher positions when transforming the profession using machinery and equipment.
Global trend
Forbes recently led a number of studies claiming that the boom of technology, especially the explosion of artificial intelligence, put many countries at risk of facing high unemployment rates due to machinery replacements. human being Among them, Vietnam, together with Mexico, Indonesia belong to high risk group.
In fact, machines have replaced humans in many jobs. In the financial sector, many major banking systems in the US and Singapore have developed automated trading points, even for loan applications, bank cards, etc. send or receive money. In February, the Amazon reported that it plans to open six more Amazon Go retail stores this year. Amazon Go is an automated retail supermarket model, completely eliminated sales staff and has been the first store testers. Over the past few years, many US retailers such as Walmart, CVS ... or supermarket chains in Australia have reduced the number of sales staff, customers can pay with the machinery under the control. The system is also machine. In China, fully automated retail stores such as BingoBox, F5 Future ... also prove effective. Similarly, in Singapore, many stores are equipped with automated machines to receive money and rotten money so customers choose to buy, pay without the salesman.
By the end of 2017, the McKinsey Advisory Group (US) announced results of its study forecasting that by 2030, 800 million jobs globally would be replaced by machinery. And in April, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), based in France, published the results of the study indicating that many occupations have high rates of substitution. .
The employment rate of some sectors may be replaced by machinery PHOTOS: OECD |
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